Joe Biden Beating Trump in the Polls?

It looks as if Joe Biden is beating Trump in the polls by doing almost nothing. More specifically, according to recent polling numbers, Biden has been winning in several key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida, states that Trump painted red in the 2016 presidential election. 

Losing these four states for Trump could perhaps lead to an assured win by Biden in November. Poll numbers also show that the majority of residents from the respective states “disapprove” of Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, the same poll numbers show that 57% of residents in Michigan believed that stay-at-home restrictions were “just right,” while 9% believed that it wasn’t strict enough.  

All these poll numbers suggest that Biden’s prospects for election have improved since the coronavirus pandemic took hold, while Trump’s approval ratings have not. 

This is curious to say in the slightest given that Biden has essentially been running an invisible campaign. This is in large part due to the unavoidable circumstances of COVID-19, which has forced Biden to campaign from his basement in his house in Delaware. As a result, his time on air and in the media has been decimated, and Democrats and supporters have been yearning for Biden to appear more often and be an important part of the daily media conversation if he wishes any chance of becoming the next president of the United States. 

However, Biden’s recent poll winnings are telling a different story. Biden is proving that the less media attention he receives, the better he does in the polls against Trump, who’s had daily press conferences extensively covered by the media. This would suggest that the improved performance of Biden is not to do with Biden the actor himself but more on the failures and gaffess of Trump in handling the situation regarding COVID-19. 

As Trump continues to be in the limelight of media attention, Biden seems to be falling into the counter-role of the unworthy challenger, which Joosse defines as “the successful charismatic leader” who is casted “as eminently competent while the conventional rivals are rendered seemingly inexperienced, ill equipped and outmoded” (Joosse 2018: 10). Although not actually affecting any change, Biden is in a sense casted as the competent one while Trump and his unfiltered performative style that won him the 2016 election is making him more unpopular by the week.  

This raises the question of if Biden’s recent popularity increase would be jeopardized by an increase in media attention of him. If so, Trump should hope that Biden starts sharing some of the media attention. Otherwise, we may see a change in US leadership by 2020. 

Sources:

Joosse, Paul. 2018. “Countering Trump: Towards a Theory of Charismatic Counter-Roles.” Social Forces 97(2): 921-944.

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